Betting Experts Answer: Best Sport To Bet On? | PART 3

Welcome to the 8th question in our series: “Betting Experts Answer The Industries Biggest Questions.”

Nowadays, you can bet on just about everything from Football to Esports to Table Tennis and so on. So, we asked 12 experts the question:

Q8: Is there a best sport to bet on? If so, why?

Check out Part 1 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of odds compiler - Jeevan Jeyaratnam, author - True Poker Joe, Toby Aldous from Punter2Pro, and the host of the Business of Betting Podcast.

Check out Part 2 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of pro sports bettor - Spanky, betting analyst - Joseph Buchdahl, Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno, and betting blog - Day 25.

MATTHEW TRENHAILE - FORMER ODDS COMPILER

For the bettor looking purely for enjoyment and not necessarily a long-term positive return I would always advise only betting on sports you have an opinion on or at least a base level of knowledge. This isn’t because these things will make you any more profitable, but simply because if you develop a narrative around why you are placing a bet it is so much more enjoyable when it pays off compared to just randomly betting on the next available event. If you do find yourself randomly placing bets you might want to take a step back and question whether you are actually getting any enjoyment from your betting, beyond the hormonal hit from risking money. For long term harmless recreational gambling your chosen sport should be one you engage with, making your gambling a puzzle or a game rather than gambling for gambling’s sake.

For those looking to make money from their betting long term then the advice would be simply to bet on any and every sport you have an edge on. Your edge can come from a variety of methods so don’t feel that picking a more data-rich sport or more popular sport is necessarily to your advantage or disadvantage. More importantly, you should ask what market to bet and when to bet it rather than what sport is most advantageous. The greater the percentage of betting turnover made up by sharp operators in a market the worse it will be for your prospects of making money. Sharp bettors are reluctant to be involved when the limits are insufficient to make it worth their while, or when the market has seemingly reached an efficient point. So illiquid markets and sports with low limits and the closer to the start of the match or live are when the highest proportion of turnover is from non-sharp operators. This can be applied to any sport and any level of that sport. If you want to bet on the EPL or NFL you can bet on illiquid markets such as player props. Or you can bet when the market first opens, or you can bet right before the start or live when there is a chance of the non-sharp money being diluted by more emotional money. Alternatively, you could bet low limit sports that are being streamed live on the bookmaker website to try and capture the best ratio of recreational to sharp money. Notice how what I have just described would be the worst possible thing for the recreational bettor I first mentioned, if they had no knowledge or opinion of the sport, and yet can be the best thing for the serious bettor. A sad truth is that the professional gambler is often best served by positioning himself wherever the gambling addict can be found.

Check out Matthew’s podcast ‘Inside Betting’ here.

PETE LING - FOUNDER OF SMART BETTING CLUB

Each sport has its own pros and cons and it's important to be aware of what they are before betting on them.

Football is a very popular betting medium, yet the reality is that it is very hard to turn a profit on it, with even the very best punters and syndicates struggling to make more than a few % ROI. Whilst you can focus on less well-known leagues which in theory produce a higher edge, the downside to that is that as you go down the football pyramid it can be difficult to get your bets on especially with soft bookmakers who might well close or limit your account if you’re winning too much.

Many punters I know enjoy betting on horse racing and some of the top tipsters we cover at SBC post ROI's in excess of 25 to 30% on the sport, yet again the caveat to that is the issue with limitations and restrictions with soft bookmakers. None of the sharp 'Asian' firms touch the sport in the UK or Ireland. The best angle for horse racing long-term therefore is to look for angles you can profit from on betting exchanges like Betfair who do not close accounts and instead make their money by charging a commission on winning bets.

Outside of these two, the sport with growing interest from a sharp betting viewpoint has to be Golf. There are lots of opportunities to profit on Betfair and via certain sharp bookmakers and even soft firms are more open to taking bets on the sport these days. Despite these advantages, it can be a challenging sport to bet on, especially from an outright perspective as you have large fields, which often means a low strike-rate of success. Yet if you understand maths, value betting, and are willing to be patient - the rewards are there.

For example - one tipster I know who has been turning a profit betting on the golf outrights since 2013 has 'only' a 2.5% strike-rate, yet his average odds of winners sit at 80/1, so if you’re understanding of this edge and happy to be patient, then you can make a fine profit this way.

Follow @SBCinfo on Twitter & check out the Smart Betting Club website here.

NENKO - THE CHURCH OF BETTING

There are sharp punters betting just about every sport under the sun, so I don’t think there is the best sport to bet on. If you are just getting started it is perhaps better to start with more exotic sports, where the markets are smaller and an edge is easier to find. If you have mastered those and limits become a problem for you, you can raise the level and test your skills in a more mainstream sport.

There are of course sports that are easier than others to model and those where it is very hard to differentiate a player's skill from chance. However, if it is difficult for you, it is just as difficult for everybody else, so that doesn’t necessarily mean that it is a “bad” sport to bet on. It is very individual – if you enjoy watching the sport, perhaps have played it or still do, then you can understand the fundamentals better than others, learn the specifics faster, and even have some fun while watching the games.

Follow @ChurchOfBetting on Twitter & check out The Church of Betting website here.

ALEX ONG - FOOTBALL TRADER

Great question… Football obviously! Haha … the real answer will be different for everyone, but I will try to give you a few things that you should consider in no particular order.

First, you will want to find a sport with good liquidity, I am a sports trader which means I often trade in and out of positions, and if I do not have liquidity it can be an issue. You want a market where you can get a big enough position when you eventually work your way up to trading/betting with larger stakes. You don’t really want to be the big fish and attract unwanted attention to what you are doing.

Second, you will want to find a sport that provides a decent quantity of high probability opportunities. I am not saying you need to be taking hundreds of trades a day, but you need to have enough that you are kept interested and kept away from taking boredom-induced trades which are never good news.

Third, finding a sport that you are familiar with is never a bad thing. It shortens your learning curve and allows you to just focus on learning to be profitable rather than having to worry about learning the rules and nuances of a new sport as well.

Finally, you should try to find a sport that you can identify with. Not just something you like but something you understand and are in sync with. You don’t want the process to be laborious.

If you can combine all of these factors then you are on your way to profitable trading/betting.

Subscribe to Alex’s YouTube channel here & check out the Alex Ong website here.

Check out Part 1 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of odds compiler - Jeevan Jeyaratnam, author - True Poker Joe, Toby Aldous from Punter2Pro, and the host of the Business of Betting Podcast.

Check out Part 2 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of pro sports bettor - Spanky, betting analyst - Joseph Buchdahl, Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno, and betting blog - Day 25.

Love getting the opinions from experts in the betting industry? Then subscribe to the Trademate Sports Podcast, where we interview the most important people in the sports betting industry.

Here are the other questions we have got our industry experts to answer so far:

  • Q1: Top 3 tips for betting beginners? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q2: How do you define “finding value” in betting markets? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results are based on luck or skill? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q4: Kelly criterion or flat staking: Which stake sizing strategy do you consider to be the best and why? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q5: What is the best method to use to make money from sports betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q6: How difficult is it to beat the sports betting markets? How efficient are the odds? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q7: How to manage risk when betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q9: Assuming you have an edge, at what point can you start accurately evaluating your results and say that variance has played out? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q10: What is the one thing you would like to see change in the gambling industry? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q11: Do you think emotions play a part in people's sports betting results? If so, how should they overcome this? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q12: What are the top 3 mistakes people make when betting? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.

Get The Best Articles and News To Your Inbox

Subscribe to our newsletter and stay updated.