Betting Experts Answer: How do you define “finding value” in betting markets? | Part 1

Welcome to the second article in our series where we ask experts in the sports betting industry the questions you need answered!

For article two, we opened up the debate on arguably the most important concept in betting, as we asked the question:

Q2: How do you define “finding value” in betting markets?

Check out Part 2 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of professional sports bettor - Spanky, tipster verification site - Smart Betting Club, betting blog - Daily25 and Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno.

JOSEPH BUCHDAHL - SPORTS BETTING ANALYST 12XPERT

When the true probability of an outcome is greater than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds, you have found value. The hard part is being able to find the true probability, or to be more specific; being better at it than the bookmaker, and better than other bettors whose attempts at trying to uncover the true probability are reflected in the bookmaker's odds. The size of value is easily quantified by:

Bookmaker's odds divided by true odds (odds in decimal notation). And's all there is to it.

JAKE - HOST OF THE BUSINESS OF BETTING PODCAST

As a starting point, I would consider your assessed price vs market price. From there you should also consider the cost of the transaction, not only in the traditional sense but also more broadly. There are so many other factors that can impact the 'value' of placing the bet itself, some obvious and others not so obvious, depending on your skill level.

Two quick examples, one, buying a pick on the event (this is rarely beneficial) should be added to the transaction cost, and two, if it is a futures bet that is 6 months away from completion, do you want to tie your money up for that long? These two examples do not impact the assessed price vs market price analysis but should be part of your holistic thinking.

TRUE POKER JOE - AUTHOR OF ‘SHARPER: A GUIDE TO MODERN SPORTS BETTING’

Value is always the difference between the true odds and the market odds. The true odds are only estimable, the market odds are on your computer. So the question becomes how do you estimate the true odds? Using the market itself is the easiest way; becoming a handicapping genius is the hard way. But the hard way is the money, the glory and the fun, so there's that.

Follow @TruePokerJoe on Twitter & check out his book‘Sharper: A Guide to Modern Sports Betting’.

NENKO - THE CHURCH OF BETTING

“Value” could be just about anything that gives you a positive ROI in the long run. Some of the time it could also translate to the closing line value, but not always. There have been tipsters with very long track records and positive ROI’s, which could hardly be attributed to chance, and still no closing line value.

Follow @ChurchOfBetting on Twitter & check out The Church of Betting website here.

ALEX ONG - FOOTBALL, FOREX & STOCKS TRADER

I define value as being a price at which I have a slight edge. So for example, if I were to take 100 trades at a price of 2.0 or less and I have a 50% win rate, I would not make any money, so there is no value there for me. However let’s take the same scenario but tweak the price to say 2.10, well then there is value, because over 100 trades with a 50% win rate I would end up with a profit. We can also find value with a price less than 2.0, but then the win rate would have to increase. So essentially value for me is a price at which I am net profitable after taking a large sample size of trades.

Subscribe to Alex’s YouTube channel here & check out the Alex Ong website here.

Check out Part 2 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of professional sports bettor - Spanky, tipster verification site - Smart Betting Club, betting blog - Daily25 and Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno.

Love getting the opinions from experts in the betting industry? Then subscribe to the Trademate Sports Podcast, where interview the most important people in the sports betting industry, along with the occasional chat about the EPL.

Here are the other questions we got our industry experts to answer:

• Q1: Top 3 tips for betting beginners? Part 1 & Part 2.
• Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results were caused by skill or luck? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
• Q4: Kelly criterion or flat staking: Which stake sizing strategy do you consider to be the best and why? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
• Q5: What is the best method to use to make money from sports betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
• Q6: How difficult is it to beat the sports betting markets? How efficient are the odds? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
• Q7: Best way to manage risk in sports betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
• Q8: Is there a best sport to bet on? If so, what is it? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
• Q9: Assuming you have an edge, at what point can you start accurately evaluating your results and say that variance has played out? Part 1 & Part 2.
• Q10: What is the one thing you would like to see change in the gambling industry? Part 1 & Part 2.
• Q11: Do you think emotions play a part in people's sports betting results? If so, how should they overcome this? Part 1& Part 2.
• Q12: What are the top 3 mistakes people make when betting? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.

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