Betting Experts Answer: How difficult is it to beat the betting markets? | Part 3

Welcome to the sixth article in our series:“Betting Experts Answer The Industries Biggest Questions.”

This week we opened up the debate on the accuracy of sports betting markets, as we asked 11 experts the question:

Q6: How difficult is it to beat the sports betting markets? How efficient are the odds?

Check out Part 1 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of betting analyst - Joseph Buchdahl, pro sports bettor - Spanky, Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno and pro sports bettor - Harout Massoyan.

Check out Part 2 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of former odds compiler - Matthew Trenhaile, host of the Business of Betting Podcast, author - True Poker Joe & Nenko from The Church of Betting.

PETE LING - FOUNDER OF SMART BETTING CLUB

I am sure my answer will be very similar to many on your expert panel as to beat the sports betting markets is very tough indeed and the odds on all markets you can get a decent stake on are hugely efficient. Most people when they start out betting learn this the hard way as they over-estimate their own skill level and of course the impact of the bookmakers in-built vig or over-round into the markets they bet in. The classic example is how people assess their own driving skills with 80% of drivers rating themselves as safer than the average driver and I dare say this logic applies to betting too. There is even a term for this - illusory superiority and many bookmakers prey on it in their advertising.

Ultimately it takes a huge amount of skill and expertise and that's before we get into the psychological barriers and difficulties all profitable bettors face and must go through. Hence our focus on tipsters as whilst the vast majority of people don't have what it takes to make money betting - there are a growing number of professional punters who sell access to their advice through tipping services. Don't be put off by the negative vibes on the industry that pervade, especially on social media. Close twitter down and you will find plenty of tipsters including those we advocate at SBC who are worthy of your attention.

Follow @SBCinfo on Twitter & check out the Smart Betting Club website here.

TOBY ALDOUS - OWNER OF PUNTER2PRO

With any market, the more participants, the more efficient it becomes. The same applies in sports betting.

Obscure Markets: Consider obscure sports markets that attract only a few bettors, where very little information circulates about the events. For example, low league Ice Hockey. In these markets, there's little money driving the odds in any direction. Bookmakers will speculate on where to set their lines, while sports traders might take a lone (and equally cagey) view on the situation.

Without a sufficient flow of money, these markets are built around a small set of opinions. In other words, they aren't very accurate or "efficient". And as a bettor, this can be either positive (if the odds are too good to be true), or negative (if the odds are not as good as they ought to be). Importantly, a niche/obscure market doesn't automatically guarantee easy value - it just means you'll face less competition for odds.

Popular Markets: Now consider highly popular sports markets, such as the 1x2 on big fixtures like 'El Clasico' (Real Madrid v Barcelona). There are literally thousands, if not millions, of different opinions that contribute to where the odds move in this market. Bookmakers are forced to adjust their odds according to demand. If the public heavily backs one outcome, then they'll lower the odds on that selection and raise the odds on others to manage their exposure. This is one way that inaccurate odds are brought into line by the masses.

Meanwhile the odds on the betting exchanges constantly fluctuate as thousands of participants (bettors, bookies, traders) enter the market to take their view on the event. Whenever the odds are too good, they are snapped up almost immediately. Equally, bad odds are left dormant - nobody takes them. What you're left with, at both the bookies and exchanges, is an efficient market built around a “consensus” of diverse opinions. This pushes the odds as close to accuracy as we ever get.

So where do you find value? The key to beating a sports betting markets is to either:

Be smarter than the market, or

Be faster at reacting to changes than other participants on that market.

The latter is much easier.

For instance, many bookmakers are slow to align their odds with more accurate prices available on the betting exchanges or "sharp" bookies. So their odds are said to be “soft”. As a result, these "soft" bookmakers provide ample value betting opportunities (price inefficiencies) for savvy punters to snap up as soon as they appear. This is how the majority of successful value betting punters operate.

While you may be tempted to try outsmarting the betting markets with your knowledge, you've got to ask yourself: do I really know more than the entire pool of opinions that went into forming those odds? Invariably you don't - and that's precisely why most punters find it so difficult to profit from sports betting.

Follow @Punter2Pro on Twitter & check out the Punter2Pro website here.

ALEX ONG - FOOTBALL, FOREX & STOCKS TRADER

The markets are not easy to beat at all, but certainly not impossible. I think if you are looking at things purely from a numbers perspective the odds are usually quite efficient. I prefer in play trading as I feel this is where I can find my edge and hence find value. A successful football trader has the ability to not only interpret the stats but also apply context to them, and then look for opportunities in-play to profit from their views. So although the markets are efficient and the bookies don’t get a lot wrong, they also cannot get everything right, which is why it is very possible to beat the markets and make money in the long run, you just have to know when and where to get involved.

Subscribe to Alex’s YouTube channel here & check out the Alex Ong website here.

Check out Part 1 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of betting analyst - Joseph Buchdahl, pro sports bettor - Spanky, Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno and pro sports bettor - Harout Massoyan.

Check out Part 2 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of former odds compiler - Matthew Trenhaile, host of the Business of Betting Podcast, author - True Poker Joe & Nenko from The Church of Betting.

Love getting the opinions from experts in the betting industry? Then subscribe to theTrademate Sports Podcast, where we interview the most important people in the sports betting industry.

Here are the other questions we have got our industry experts to answer so far:

  • Q1: Top 3 tips for betting beginners? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q2: How do you define “finding value” in betting markets? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results are based on luck or skill? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q4: Kelly criterion or flat staking: Which stake sizing strategy do you consider to be the best and why? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q5: What is the best method to use to make money from sports betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q7: Best way to manage risk in sports betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q8: Is there a best sport to bet on? If so, what is it? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q9: Assuming you have an edge, at what point can you start accurately evaluating your results and say that variance has played out? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q10: What is the one thing you would like to see change in the gambling industry? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q11: Do you think emotions play a part in people's sports betting results? If so, how should they overcome this? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q12: What are the top 3 mistakes people make when betting? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.

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