Betting Experts Answer: Betting staking strategy - Kelly Criterion or Flat Stake? | Part 2

Welcome to the fourth article in our series: “Betting Experts Answer The Industries Biggest Questions.”

This week we move onto one of the more contentious topics in the betting world; staking strategy and bankroll management, as we asked 11 experts the question:

Q4: Kelly criterion or flat staking: Which stake sizing strategy do you consider to be the best and why? And if Kelly bet, what percentage do you recommend?

Check out Part 1 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of football betting analyst - Mark O’Haire, betting analyst - Joseph Buchdahl, Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno & author - True Poker Joe.

Check out Part 3 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of former odds compiler - Matthew Trenhaile, professional sports bettor - Jonas Gjelstad, and founder of Punter2Pro - Toby Aldous.

SPANKY - PRO SPORTS BETTOR & HOST OF BE BETTER BETTORS

Spanky's set up

Given that I am playing numbers, stake sizing is not a factor for me. I try to bet as much as possible at the best line. If I get down too much, I always have the option of buying some back for a middle or scalp.

Follow @Spanky on Twitter & check out the article The Ringer wrote about him here.

JAKE - HOST OF THE BUSINESS OF BETTING PODCAST

Starting out, I would suggest flat staking for a specified period of time (i.e. 6-18 months) and once your betting has progressed significantly to then switch to fractional Kelly betting. Before you switch, I would consume and understand as much as possible on the topic of Kelly betting (especially what over-betting even when you have an edge can lead to). I don't think that there is a good answer on what % of Kelly to bet because it is so much a personal preference based on risk tolerance and willingness to absorb swings and the volatility that Kelly presents. Kelly clearly maximizes the rate of growth in your bankroll over time but comes with a mental challenge that may not be fully appreciated until you are experiencing it.

Follow @BettingPod on Twitter & check out The Business of Betting Podcast here.

STEVE - OWNER OF DAILY25

There really isn’t a correct answer here. There is a mathematically correct answer if you have all the data, but that won’t take into account the psychological aspect of losing runs. I'm assuming others will go further into the maths of Kelly and how good it is.

When I started following tipsters, I would follow along with their staking plan. One used Kelly, most used flat stakes or bet to win a % of bank. The only profitable tipster was the one that used Kelly.

You want a staking strategy that will maximise your profits but also one that protects your bank. I see it all the time with the Dailyprofit service. I advise a 100 unit bank and if we go on a big drawdown of 25 units, people will leave the service. I would usually send an email asking why they are leaving when down ¼ of their bank and it’s always got to do with their psychology. In reality, they had set a bank of 25 units and were betting as if it was a 100 unit bank, which is always going to end in the bank being busted.

The Sportpunter models are pretty unique, they seem to outperform at the start of the season, then give back profits from the middle to the end of the regular season before making profits again in the postseason. If you have a model that performs well all season, a moving bank will give you the best return, but I use a static Kelly bank simply based on how the SP models perform.

In saying that, because of years of profits following the SP model, my issue now is getting my bets on. So now it's just a case of betting as much as the bookies are willing to accept.

If you are betting a wide range of odds types (and don’t give your picks a percentage chance), bet to win a set amount. You really need to feel no emotion when you win or lose a bet, so you need to work out what that amount is.

Follow @Day25 on Twitter & check out the Daily25 blog here.

NENKO - THE CHURCH OF BETTING

Church of betting

Kelly staking is the strategy that, at least theoretically, leads to the highest rate of bank growth. However, there are three main issues with it.

First, in a betting context, it is way too risky for most people. I would recommend to anyone considering Kelly to run a few simulations and check if the resulting volatility appears acceptable. If that is not the case, some sort of fractional Kelly would be the better option. What fraction exactly is entirely a function of the risk preference of the punter.

Second, in order to reliably estimate your Kelly stake, you need to have a very accurate estimation of your bet, which would in practice rarely be the case. If you are unaware of the size of your edge, fixed profit staking would be the best staking plan and also relatively simple to calculate.

And the third is just a practical consideration: markets are moving fast, so sometimes you would simply need to place a quick bet and be done with it. In that case you probably won’t be able to calculate a perfect Kelly stake, but will have to go with your intuition. I think it is practical to get used to calculating Kelly stakes “on the go”, perhaps based on Kelly or some of the other plans outlined above. However, I wouldn’t obsess too much over it – as the esteemed betting blogger Cassini used to say, perfect is the enemy of good.

Follow @ChurchOfBetting on Twitter & check out The Church of Betting website here.

Check out Part 1 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of football betting analyst - Mark O’Haire, betting analyst - Joseph Buchdahl, Smart Sports Trader - Ryan Bruno & author - True Poker Joe.

Check out Part 3 of our answers here, where we get the opinions of former odds compiler - Matthew Trenhaile, professional sports bettor - Jonas Gjelstad and founder of Punter2Pro - Toby Aldous.

Love getting the opinions from experts in the betting industry? Then subscribe to the Trademate Sports Podcast, where we interview the most important people in the sports betting industry.

Here are the other questions we have got our industry experts to answer so far:

  • Q1: Top 3 tips for betting beginners? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q2: How do you define “finding value” in betting markets? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results are based on luck or skill? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q5: What is the best method to use to make money from sports betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q6: How difficult is it to beat the sports betting markets? How efficient are the odds? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q7: Best way to manage risk in sports betting? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q8: Is there a best sport to bet on? If so, what is it? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.
  • Q9: Assuming you have an edge, at what point can you start accurately evaluating your results and say that variance has played out? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q10: What is the one thing you would like to see change in the gambling industry? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q11: Do you think emotions play a part in people's sports betting results? If so, how should they overcome this? Part 1 & Part 2.
  • Q12: What are the top 3 mistakes people make when betting? Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3.

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