We designed a product in which we believe in and we are users ourselves.
Although the software does half of the work for you to place the best value bets, for you to become a professional sports bettor and succeed in the sports trading world, you need to be informed.
That’s why every time someone asks us something through intercom, we always recommend them articles or videos. We encourage you all to keep learning.
Value betting is not about luck, it’s about skills and hard work.
At the end of the day, we know that the more quality information our beloved Trademate community has, the better they will perform.
Here is a compilation of some of the questions you might be asking yourselves, and if there are still doubts, please reach us our on our website’s chat.
We divided this article in three sections for you to navigate through it easily:
QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADEMATE
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SERVICE
QUESTIONS ABOUT STRATEGY
1.1 Why do you sell it?
We get that it doesn't always make sense why we sell such a thing if it works as good as we are claiming. The problem with value betting is getting limited. As you will soon experience for yourself, bookmakers will do everything they can to stop you from winning. That is what happened to all of us. So, on the soft books, there's simply not any value for us anymore. However, there's still plenty of value in it for you.
1.2 Is this an arbitrage betting service?
1.3 Are you a bookmaker and can I place bets through Trademate?
No. We just recommend the value bets, then you place the bets yourself.
2.1. Is it possible to place bets through your service or do I need accounts with bookmakers?
No, you cannot place bets directly through Trademate. Yes, you would need accounts at different bookmakers.
2.2. Will they limit me?
Yes. Getting limited on the soft books will happen eventually if you keep winning and placing valuable bets, but unfortunately, that is part of the game.
There are some steps you can take to get more value out of each bookmaker.
We wrote an article on it a little while back, which can be found here. The alternative is to move over to the Asian bookmakers (on our Pro plan), which do not limit winning players.
3.1. Should I take all the bets that come onto the Tradefeed?
Short answer: No. That is what the presets (filters) are for.
Long answer: The goal of value betting is to beat the closing line of the sharpest bookmakers. Over a high volume of trades, only traders who are able to consistently beat the closing line will be profitable. You can read more about the closing line and why it is so important here.
When you place a bet, you don’t know whether your edge will remain an edge at the time the game kicks-off. However, there are several measures you can take to increase your chances of beating the closing line, which can be found in this article.
3.2 How much should I bet?
We use the Kelly Criterion to determine stake/bet size. It takes into account the edge, odds and your bankroll to determine the appropriate amount to bet on different games to maximise profit growth. Following 100% of the Kelly is rather risky. We recommend only doing 30%. You can read up on bet sizing here.
Pro tip: In order to stay under the bookmakers' radar, adjust your stake to round numbers. If Trademate suggests $11, choose $10 instead. That way you'll look like a normal punter.
If you want more information about how we calculate the ideal bet size, check out this article.
3.3 How much can I expect to make?
Short: Profits depend on multiple factors and unfortunately, there's no definitive answer to that question.
Long: First, realise that this is a long-term game. We are beating the softs with an average ROI of 2.6% per trade. In order to make money, getting a good turnover is key and then the results compound. The example we like to use is that if you flip a coin 10 times in a row anything can happen. If you choose tails you could lose 10 in a row, despite the underlying probability being 50% for each outcome.
Do it 100 times, it might be 50%, plus or minus 10%. Do it 1,000 times and it is 50% plus or minus 1%. And so forth. Variance can be large in value betting, and the two most important factors for reducing it is stake sizing and sticking to lower odds ranges. Also only placing one trade per game and staying away from the smallest leagues, e.g. reserve and U20 teams.
Obviously, the actual profits will vary and should not be confused with expected (theoretical) profits. Variance is part of the game and up and down swings will happen. The timing of when these swings occur will have a large impact on the actual profits.
The avg. flat ROI per trade for Trademate users across +200,000 trades on all bookmakers is 2.1%. On Asians, it is 0.4%.
It is possible to achieve a higher avg. ROI by using a proportional staking strategy e.g. the Kelly Criterion, which is used inside Trademate to calculate stake size. Another factor is narrowing your presets.
Compound growth is a concept that plays an important factor when value betting. You can read more about it here: Investopedia.
The calculation for expected profits for let us say, one month, is the following:
Expected Monthly Profit = [ Starting Bankroll * Avg. ROI ^ Bankroll Turnover Times ] - Starting Bankroll
Let us assume a starting bankroll of $5,000 on the soft books with an average stake size of $25. This would imply risking 0.5% of the total bankroll on each trade. The turnover could be higher / lower depending on the stake sizing.
Our active users are able to get in anywhere between 200-400 trades per week. Our most active users have been doing 600 trades a week. The deciding factor being how much time they spend. Let’s use 300 trades as an average, which would give a turnover of $7500 per week (or being able to flip over the bankroll 6 times in a month ($30k turnover).
The average flat ROI for soft books is 2.6%. $5000 * 1,026^6 = $5832. Deduct the monthly costs of a TM core subscription of €120 or roughly $130 and you will be left with a profit that month of $702. The next month your starting bankroll will be $5702. Achieving the same numbers for the second month would yield an expected profit of $1521 after subtracting the fees. The total bankroll would now be $6,521.
So your expected profits depends on your starting bankroll, your number of trades, your stake sizing, the edge/average ROI, and variance. You have full control over your bankroll, the number of trades you make, and your stake sizing. You have some influence over your edge / avg. ROI depending on your presets. Variance is a factor that is largely outside of your control. Some steps you can take to reduce it is to reduce your odds range and stake sizing. You can make some calculations for yourself depending on your starting bankroll, avg. bet size, and the number of trades you are able to get in per week and see how the expected results change.
Finally, nothing is certain in life. Nothing is risk-free. We do not guarantee that you will make a profit by using our service. As you will experience yourself, the odds offered by the bookmaker will often drop shortly after you placed your trade. This should tell you that we are onto something and that the bookmakers have realised that the odds they offered were too high compared to the actual probability of the outcome.
3.4 How do I distribute my bankroll over several bookmakers?
Naturally, more bookmakers mean more edges. Therefore, it makes sense to spread your bankroll over as many bookmakers as possible, but with some constraints:
First is the deposit bonus, which you always want to max out. They vary from anywhere between $100-$300, and before depositing at a bookie with a bonus, you should consider waiting until you're able to max it out.
We also like to spread the bankroll disproportionately, i.e. having a larger % at bookies with a larger number of trades and a lower % at bookies with a lower volume of trades.
For example, you might place 2/5 of your bankroll on higher volume bookies and ⅕ on lower volume bookies. The last ⅖ is kept in reserve in your bank account or e-wallet until you get a clearer picture of which bookies you get the highest volume of trades at, or as a backup in case you run bad at a bookie and tap out. The goal is to eventually get the entire bankroll in play in order to maximise turnover.
Note that bookmakers often have restrictions on which countries they accept customers from. This is something you'll have to check in each individual case.
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