Bookmakers make their money by having a margin on each game.
This gives them an edge over players as they price their odds lower than what they believe to be the underlying probability.
So in order to be profitable in the long term, one needs to find an edge in your favour that is larger than the bookmaker’s edge (their margin).
There are different strategies to do so, but I would always measure my performance by measuring whether or not I’m able to beat the Pinnacle's vig free closing line (odds at the time the game starts). You can read more about why the closing line is the best benchmark for sports traders in this article.
If one is not able to do so, one will not be profitable in the long term. If one only tracks the profits and losses from each game, it is easy to mistake luck for skill. So one needs to have an objective yardstick to benchmark performance against.
Stake sizing is another important aspect of a successful strategy, and I’m an advocate of using a proportional staking strategy based on the Kelly Criterion.
But if you don’t have an edge in the first place, no stake sizing system in the world is going to turn you into a profitable player.
The full article was published at Alphasportsbetting.
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