Week 2: "Crazy Variance & a 35% Edge" | My Sports Betting Journey with Oddshero & Trademate

TOTAL PROFIT: $2,711 | TOTAL INVESTMENT: $1,823 | WEEK 2 RESULT: +$263 | 20/2/20 - 04/3/20

Because I was a bit busy last week, I wasn’t able to give you all a weekly update, but here are my results from the last fortnight.

I was able to turnover two bonuses with 888Sport and Mobilebet, giving me approximately $300 in profits from Matched Betting.

On the other hand with Trademate, I went on one hell of a variance roller coaster ride as you’ll see with my graph below.

Note: The reason why my profits have risen so much in the past fortnight is because I have factored in the profits I have made that are sitting in my bank account and Neteller account (approx. $220). These funds are in reserve at the moment.

Below are my results from just value betting with Trademate, check out this article for my results with just matched betting with Oddshero.


week 2 results

Total Profit: -$37 | Closing EV: $262 | Turnover: $9.8k | ROI: -0.4% | Trades: 398


As you can see from my graph I went on one hell of a ride in terms of profit/losses, hitting a high of approx. $300 and a low of over $400 in losses.

Most people would see this and think negatively of the software and my strategy, but by looking at my results with no emotion, I can see that my strategy is working as I my green line (closing EV) continues to rise at a nice rate.

In terms of my profits/losses, this is just variance. For the people unfamiliar with what variance is, check out this article.


If you take a look at my overall graph and how I’m going compared to my closing EV, it looks like I’m majorly over-performing in terms of my profits vs closing EV.

But approximately $1,000 of my profits has been made from bonuses, which my closing EV does not account for.

So when looking at how much I’m profiting, versus where I should be (my closing EV), I need to minus the profits I’ve made from bonuses.

By doing this, it takes my profits without bonuses to $1,711, which means I’m currently sitting approx. $350 above my closing EV, which is $1,354.

So yes, I’m over-performing, but not by much.


This is a very hard concept to grasp and I completely understand why people become results-orientated.

At the end of the day, you’re using this software to make money, but you have to understand that this is a process and not a get-rich-quick solution.

I have now placed nearly 4,000 trades, which not only gives me more consistent results than someone just starting, but I have experienced the best and worst days of trading.

Of course I love seeing my profits rising, however, I find myself having less and less emotional attachment to my profit/losses every day.

As long as my Closing EV is rising and I’m getting lots of trades/turnover in, I’m doing well!

I literally have the exact same emotional reaction to profits and losses, I honestly laugh at both instances most of the time.


I almost get excited when I lose because that means that I’m even closer to having a winning day again.

When I’m running above my expected returns, I feel lucky, knowing that at any moment my profits could plummet. Which is the situation I’m in now.

So, funny enough, I actually enjoy running slightly below my Closing EV, because I know that every trade I place is one trade closer to an upward swing in profits.


Unibet and Betfair have now limited my stakes to the point where it makes no sense to keep money in those accounts, I would rather have that money in reserve so I can place even more trades at the likes of Leo Vegas and Coolbet.

I ran out of money in my Coolbet account on the weekend, so it was great to have some money in reserve so I could continue to trade with them.

As of this moment I have roughly $200 in reserve if a similar situation arises. I could also use that money to deposit into new bookies for Matched Betting with Oddshero also.


Below are some screenshots of my biggest edge and biggest win, along with my biggest negative edge and biggest losing trade respectively.

positive edge

negative edge

big win

big loss

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