Written by Alex Vella

To give you a bit more insight into the performance of our users and software, every month we go through our overall results, as well as taking a deeper look into our performance with each individual sport and leagues.

We are doing this with the help of our back-logged data. This is because the big data tool inside the software has a cap of 10,000 trades to speed up loading time, so for some of our sports it will not show results of every trade placed in February. There are no filters on this data, it is every trade placed no matter what the odds range, time placed, edge, etc.

Limitations

Before we get into how we performed in February, it’s important to note some of the limitations of the data we will show you:

1. For the Flat ROI calculations, stake sizing of €1 per trade is used to remove the effect of users with large bankrolls skewing the results. Also, this way we can see whether our edge is based on beating the market, rather than the Kelly Criterion.
2. There is a chance that some of the bets in this data are duplicated as multiple customers could be placing the same bet. But the chances of this happening regularly are low as our user-base is quite geographically-diverse, which means they have to use different bookmakers.
3. Something else that is possible but even more rare is customers logging their own bets manually within our software. Those bets are not recommended by us, but they will still appear in this data, win, lose or void.
4. Some of the sample sizes will be very low, meaning no conclusions should be taken from those data-sets. The bigger the sample size the more accurate the data. Generally, a sample size of under 2,000 trades will include a lot more randomness and needs to be taken with a grain of salt or completely ignored.

Results & Key Findings

In the month of February, 181,936 trades were placed, €12,541,631 was turned over and €216,087 was profited at an ROI of 1.72%. Here is how each sport performed, broken down into recommended leagues (popular/bigger leagues) and non-recommended leagues (lower/smaller leagues):

Soccer

For the second month in a row, recommended leagues ended with a negative ROI. I wish we had been doing the monthly articles since Trademate started to see if this is the first time we’ve gone two months in a row with a negative ROI on recommended leagues. Out of all the sports we cover, the Soccer betting market is one of the most efficient, so considering we have a 2.68% edge over the market it’s very surprising. Like I stated last month, the only explanation that makes sense to me is the crazy scheduling currently, and that the market isn’t adjusting efficiently. I think it’s the same for non-recommended leagues too, but the difference there is that our edge is bigger, so that’s why we achieved a winning month there in comparison to recommended leagues.

Tennis

The Australian Open dominated the headlines for Tennis this month, but unfortunately for Trademate users it wasn’t a profitable segment. As we have stated many times before, the Tennis betting markets are not efficient so it’s very important to approach Tennis in Trademate differently to every other sport. I’m not going to go over exactly how to do that, but what I will do is post a live stream I did a couple of weeks ago.

If you fast forward to about 22 minutes, I explain how to find profitable Tennis presets and why you need to approach Tennis differently. A lot of what I say is directly related to what Tennis Betting Expert, Dan Weston, talked about on our podcast and the Q&A we did last month. So I will leave that below also.

Basketball

Another great month for Basketball! If you’ve been following these monthly articles from the start you will know that we have always been profitable with non-recommended leagues, but recommended leagues had losing months in November and December. If you go back and look at the sample sizes though, they weren’t the biggest (4k & 8k respectively). Whereas the last two months it’s been 20k & 16k respectively. So as we always say, variance produces crazy results, so you need to always factor in sample size when analysing any sports betting results.

American Football

Not much to comment on here, those 95 trades were all on one game, the Super Bowl! And it looks like most of us one some money on it which is nice!

Baseball

Same as American Football, this is such a small sample size so it doesn’t warrant any attention at all. I believe the MLB starts in April so that will be fun to analyse later down the line.

Ice Hockey

Let’s be honest, betting on the NHL sucked in January. But the complete opposite can be said for Trademate users in February, achieving a 5.81% ROI. Like I said last month, I assumed our bad results were down to the heightened NHL schedule (which I am happy to be corrected on), affecting market efficiency (just like Soccer). My Ice Hockey knowledge is very limited so let me know if there are better reasons than mine! Non-recommended leagues went well also, only the one negative month for them back in December.

CS:GO (Esports)

CS:GO is back in business! After a couple of slightly profitable months in December and January, our strong results have returned once again. CS:GO has been one of our most profitable sports during the past year, with massive edges to go with it. Keep ‘em coming!

DOTA 2 (Esports)

I’ll be completely honest, I had no idea we put DOTA 2 back in the software this month, but it’s great to see it back! Very small sample so there’s not much to comment on this month, but just like CS:GO, I’m sure it will be producing big edges over the coming months. Originally, we introduced DOTA 2 in place of American Football when COVID cancelled their season, but it was re-introduced when the season started again. And if you remember my podcast last year with Pro Esports Bettor, Adam Boothe, he made some great points as to why we should’ve kept DOTA 2 in the software! You can check that out below.

--

And that’s all she wrote for my latest Trademate Sports monthly results. Although most of these results come with huge samples, it’s important to take them with a grain of salt. Just because a sport is profitable or unprofitable doesn’t mean that you trade on every single bet that comes through our software. Follow our recommended presets and run some simulations on our big data tool yourself to figure out the best odds ranges, times to trade, etc.

Start a free week trial (no card details required) of Trademate Sports.