VARIANCE

Matchday 1 Narratives Are Garbage

I find Matchday 1 of any competition the greatest metaphor for sports betting. The amount of narratives that form from a sample size of one game is so interesting.

What Is Expected Growth In Sports Betting and How To Maximise It?

In short, EG is the percentage by which your entire bankroll grows (in the long run) when doing whatever it is you’re doing. That “something” can be making an independent bet (one that has no connection or correlation to any other bet you have open), but it can also be making several bets that are correlated somehow, or betting in a correlated way with some of your existing bets.

Sports Betting Psychology: How To Deal With Bad Runs

Psychology plays a huge part in all forms of gambling. Winning at sports betting is no easy task and the psychological factors just make it even harder. Unfortunately, variance is an unavoidable part of gambling. During this article, we will explore the best ways to deal with bad runs.

Betting Experts Answer: At What Point Has Variance Played Out in Betting? | Part 2

Assuming you have an edge, at what point can you start accurately evaluating your results and say that variance has played out? Is there an amount of turnover or number of bets?

Betting Experts Answer: At What Point Has Variance Played Out in Betting? | Part 1

Assuming you have an edge, at what point can you start accurately evaluating your results and say that variance has played out? Is there an amount of turnover or number of bets?

Betting Experts Answer: How to determine whether betting results are based on luck or skill? | Part 3

Over a small number of bets, luck can play a huge role in your betting success. Which is why it’s important to not just base your success on whether a bet won or lost, but to look further at other metrics. So, for question three, we asked the experts: Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results were caused by skill or luck?

Betting Experts Answer: How to determine whether betting results are based on luck or skill? | Part 2

Over a small number of bets, luck can play a huge role in your betting success. Which is why it’s important to not just base your success on whether a bet won or lost, but to look further at other metrics. So, for question three, we asked the experts: Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results were caused by skill or luck?

Betting Experts Answer: How to determine whether betting results are based on luck or skill? | Part 1

Over a small number of bets, luck can play a huge role in your betting success. Which is why it’s important to not just base your success on whether a bet won or lost, but to look further at other metrics. So, for question three, we asked the experts: Q3: How do you determine whether your betting results were caused by skill or luck?

What Does a Profitable Betting Strategy Look Like? Monte Carlo Simulations of Sports Betting Histories

This article analyses how implied edges and number of bets affects different aspects of a betting history given the fractional Kelly staking strategy - in particular the expected fund growth and profit align with the probabilities of going bankrupt and of obtaining no profit.

What is Variance and why is it important in Sports Betting?

While a mysterious concept to many, variance is an essential part of the game and a key element in our betting software.

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