Written by Alex Vella

To give you a bit more insight into the performance of our users and software, every month we go through our overall results, as well as taking a deeper look into our performance with each individual sport and leagues.

We are doing this with the help of our back-logged data. This is because the big data tool inside the software has a cap of 10,000 trades to speed up loading time, so for some of our sports it will not show results of every trade placed in March. There are no filters on this data, it is every trade placed no matter what the odds range, time placed, edge, etc.

Limitations

Before we get into how we performed in March, it’s important to note some of the limitations of the data we will show you:

1. For the Flat ROI calculations, stake sizing of €1 per trade is used to remove the effect of users with large bankrolls skewing the results. Also, this way we can see whether our edge is based on beating the market, rather than the Kelly criterion.
2. There is a chance that some of the bets in this data are duplicated as multiple customers could be placing the same bet. But the chances of this happening regularly are low as our user-base is quite geographically-diverse, which means they have to use different bookmakers.
3. Something else that is possible but even more rare is customers logging their own bets manually within our software. Those bets are not recommended by us, but they will still appear in this data, win, lose or void.
4. Some of the sample sizes will be very low, meaning no conclusions should be taken from those data-sets. The bigger the sample size the more accurate the data. Generally, a sample size of under 2,000 trades will include a lot more randomness and needs to be taken with a grain of salt or completely ignored.

Results & Key Findings

In the month of March, 171,589 trades were placed, €10,453,369 was turned over and €303,655 was profited at an ROI of 2.90%. Here is how each sport performed, broken down into recommended leagues (popular/bigger leagues) and non-recommended leagues (lower/smaller leagues):

Soccer

After a couple of dodgy months on recommended leagues, we have come roaring back with a very healthy ROI of 5.15%. We only incurred small losses in the first two months of 2021, so considering we over-performed this month, you could make an argument that everything has evened out for the year. Another couple of crazy months are still left in the season, so expect some variant results, but you would think the market is more efficient now than it was at the start of the season. Huge sample for non-recommended leagues, which I would assume is because of the international break. And results-wise, they were as steady as ever - the worst month we’ve had on non-recommended leagues has been a 1.45% ROI.

Tennis

This has to be the stand-out sport for March, which is great to see! For those who have been following my stream every Sunday night and the various times we’ve spoken to Dan Weston - you'll know we have talked a lot of Tennis recently, highlighting the various strategies and presets to try. So hopefully this has been the reason for the up-turn in results and people are figuring out the best way to approach Tennis with Trademate.

Basketball

It’s been a while since we had a losing month with the NBA and Euroleague. The start of 2021 was strong with an ROI of over 3%, so I think this is just variance saying hello and bringing us back to our normal levels. As always, a huge sample and great results for non-recommended leagues - interesting to see such a big difference between edge placed and closing edges which has actually been quite common throughout 2021. So keep that in mind when betting non-recommended leagues - either bet closer to tip-off or take a higher minimum edge.

Baseball

Once again, very small samples for Baseball but the good news is the MLB has just returned! So I look forward to seeing how we start the season next month.

Ice Hockey

January was not a good month in the NHL, but February was brilliant. Unfortunately we have slipped again in March with a -1.34% ROI. As I've stated before, my knowledge of the Ice Hockey market is very limited so I'm currently asking around for other people's thoughts on this. Could just be variance because our results in 2020 were great but maybe COVID is having a decent effect on the market. Hopefully I'll get some answers soon!

CS:GO (Esports)

Not the biggest sample in the world, but for those who have been following our CS:GO results for the past year - you know this is a pretty standard month for us. I think it takes the prize for our most profitable sport, the downside being account limitations. I think the bookies know they’re vulnerable in this area - so be wary that it might ruin the lifespan of your accounts.

DOTA 2 (Esports)

A small sample for DOTA 2 this month but 2,836 trades is enough to have a chat about. I talked to Pro Esports Bettor, Adam Boothe, about a month ago, and he mentioned the closing lines for DOTA 2 in 2020 were relatively weak in terms of efficiency. So this is definitely something to keep an eye on going forward as Trademate relies on market efficiency to be profitable. Watch this space!

Rugby League & Union

Like always these samples are not big enough to make any definitive statements about month on month. So once we rack up enough trades for 2021 I will do a review of their respective performances for the year.

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And that’s all she wrote for my latest Trademate Sports monthly results. Although most of these results come with huge samples, it’s important to take them with a grain of salt. Just because a sport is profitable or unprofitable doesn’t mean that you should trade on every single bet that comes through our software. Follow our recommended presets and run some simulations on our big data tool yourself to figure out the best odds types, edges, odds ranges, times to trade, etc.

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