No one is able to perfectly predict the outcome of every sporting event. However, this does not imply that it is impossible to become a profitable sports bettor, nor that those who are profitable are merely lucky.
The goal when betting is not to win every bet you place, but to make decisions that have a positive expected value (+EV). In other words, you want to place bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the odds you bet on.
As previously described, the sharp bookmakers’ closing lines are considered to be the expected value. This means that If you traded at higher odds than the closing line, you have made a +EV bet.
On the other hand, if your odds are lower than the closing line, your bet has a negative expected value (-EV). In that case, it’s time to revise your strategy. You can read more about the closing line in this article.
Over a small sample size of bets, variance will have a dominating impact on your results. In other words, anything can happen. However, over a large volume of bets, the variance will even out and luck is replaced with skill.
In the end, only sports bettors who are able to consistently beat the vig-free closing lines at the sharp bookmakers will be profitable.
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