Week 4: "Disregarding my profits, I have a successful strategy" | My Value Betting Journey from $1k to $2k

TOTAL PROFIT: +552 | WEEK 4 RESULT: +82 | 30/09/19 - 06/10/19

Similar to last week, I started the week down in profits, but by Sunday evening I’d worked my way back above my weekly closing EV. Early on Saturday afternoon I lost 29 bets in a row which you would think would result in a poor week! But then I went on to win 25 trades in a row which put me well and truly in the green! After using Trademate for a month now, instead of salivating over my profits, I want to see if I have both a successful and sustainable strategy by looking at my key statistics. To judge my overall strategy, I’m going to look at three different areas; my staking strategy, EV and number of trades & turnover.


If you look at my average ROI compared to my flat ROI, you can see that my staking strategy is successful. I’ve been using 30% Kelly Criterion, but if I had been placing trades with the same stake every time (flat stake), my ROI would be 2.6%, compared to my current ROI of 9.1%. I would further advocate for using 30% Kelly Criterioninstead of a bigger or smaller percentage after looking at the Trademate user data article. You can see in this article that the most successful Trademate users use a 30% Kelly Criterion, as opposed to a higher percentage.


My average closing edge is 2.4%, which is good, and leaves me with the conclusion that my presets are working effectively also. If I wanted to be picky and raise that edge even more, I could potentially look at placing trades closer to kick-off, as my average trade is placed 5 hours before kick-off. Like I said last week, I can’t get too emotionally attached to my current profits as I’m running well over my closing EV of $144. Over time my profits will get closer to my closing EV, but I’ll take the good luck I’ve had so far!



I’m placing over 200 trades a week which is quite decent, and it puts me in the bracket of an active user. In week four I placed my most trades ever (242), and that was all from the weekend, as I work during the evenings throughout the week. I’ve also turned over $6.1k at an ROI of 9.1%, which once again highlights that the name of the game is to maximise the amount of trades you place.


Below are some screenshots of my biggest edge and biggest win, along with my biggest negative edge and biggest losing trade respectively.

biggest edge

negative edge

big win

big loss

Check out my Week 0 video, showing how I got set up with my Trademate and betting accounts here!

Check out how I went in Week 1 here, Week 2 here and Week 3 here!

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