Yes. Getting limited on the soft books will happen eventually if you keep winning and placing valuable bets, but unfortunately, that is part of the game. There are some steps you can take to get more value out of each bookmaker. We wrote an article on staying under the radar. The alternative is to move over to the Asian bookmakers (on our Pro plan), which do not limit winning players.
Short answer: No. That is what the presets (filters) are for.
Long answer: The goal of value betting is to beat the closing line of the sharpest bookmakers. Over a high volume of trades, only traders who are able to consistently beat the closing line will be profitable. Read more about the closing line and why it is so important.
When you place a bet, you don’t know whether your edge will remain an edge at the time the game kicks-off. However, there are several measures you can take to increase your chances of beating the closing line:
Placing bets closer to kick-off. The odds at the sharpest bookies are market driven. So if a large sum of money is placed on Man United winning at home, the odds will drop. Less time before kick-off means that less information is likely to enter the market and thus the odds will be less volatile. As a result what is an edge <1 hour before kickoff is more likely to remain an edge at the time of kick than an edge that occurs 10 hours before kickoff. For recommended leagues, I personally place bets up to 6 hours before kickoff if the edge is high. On all leagues I only take <1 hour bets.
Market liquidity. Minor leagues typically have lower liquidity than larger leagues. For instance the Premier League vs the Bulgarian top division. Thus it takes a smaller bet to shift the odds in the EPL than in the Bulgarian League. The odds is less volatile in high liquidity markets. You can adjust for this in your presets by only placing bets on recommended leagues.
Odds range: Odds is the inverse of probability. So a 2.00 in odds on Man. United winning at home (after the bookmaker’s margin is deducted) is equal to a 50% probability. (P = 1/2.00 = 0.5). So in theory you should win 50% of your bets on 2.00 in odds. However, winning and loosing streaks happen in betting. So after a 100 trades you could for instance only have won 45% of your 2.00 bets. Thus, you would have been unlucky. Or you could have been lucky and won 56% of your 2.00 bets. Over time, the variance will even out and your actual % hit rate should be equal to your theoretical hit rate. Now a bet with 10.00 in odds is only expected to win 1/10 times. So it will take a longer time for the variance to even our on a 10 in odds vs a 2 in odds. Thus you can reduce your variance by not taking bets on odds above for instance 3.00. Finally be vary of very high edges, 15% and above. Check if the odds has changed at the bookmaker. If that is the case, then you should not take the bet. For instance Trademate might list the edge at 20% on a 3.50 in odds, however upon visiting the bookies website the odds have changed to 2.90. Sometimes the bookies are fast at adjusting their odds, and now the window of opportunity has passed and you should not take the bet.
We use the Kelly Criterion to determine stake/bet size. It takes into account the edge, odds and your bankroll to determine the appropriate amount to bet on different games to maximise profit growth. Following 100% of the Kelly is rather high risk. Personally I only do 30%. Read up on bet sizing.
Pro tip: In order to stay under the bookmakers radar, adjust your stake to round numbers. If Trademate suggests EUR 11, choose 10 instead. That way you'll look like a normal punter.
We get that it doesn't always makes sense why we sell such a thing if it works as good as we are claiming. The problem with value betting like this is getting limited. As you will soon experience for yourself, bookmakers will do everything they can to stop you from winning. That is what happened to all of us. So on the soft books, there's simply not any value for us anymore. However, there's still plenty of value in it for you.
Yes. Here's how:
You are good to go!
If there are any issues after you have done all of these steps, let us know :)
Short: Profits depend on multiple factors and unfortunately, there's no definitive answer to that question.
First, realize that this is a long term game. We are beating the softs with an average ROI of 2.6% per trade. In order to make money getting a good turnover is key and then the results compound. The example I like to use is that if you flip a coin 10 times in a row anything can happen. If you choose tails you could loose 10 in a row, despite the underlying probability being 50% for each outcome. Do it a 100 times, it might be 50% +- 10%. Do it 1000 times and it is 50% +- 1%. And so forth. Variance can be large in value betting, and the two most important factors for reducing it is stake sizing and sticking to lower odds ranges. Also only placing one trade per game, staying away from the smallest leagues, e.g. reserve and U20 teams.
Obviously the actual profits will vary and should not be confused with expected (theoretical) profits. Variance is part of the game and up and down swings will happen. The timing of when these swings occur will have a large impact on the actual profits.
The avg. flat ROI per trade for Trademate users across +200 000 trades on all bookmakers is 2,1%. On Asians it is 0.4%.
It is possible to achieve a higher avg. ROI by using a proportional staking strategy e.g. the Kelly Criterion, which is used inside Trademate to calculate stake size. Another factor is narrowing your presets.
Compound growth is a concept that plays an important factor when value betting. You can read more about it here: Investopedia.
The calculation for expected profits for let us say 1 month is the following:
Expected Monthly Profit = [ Starting Bankroll * Avg. ROI ^ Bankroll Turnover Times ] - Starting Bankroll
Let us assume a starting bankroll of $5000 on the soft books with an average stake size of $25. This would imply risking 0.5% of the total bankroll on each trade. The turnover could be higher / lower depending on the stake sizing.
Our active users are able to get in anywhere between 200-400 trades per week. Our most active users have been doing 600 trades a week. The deciding factor being how much time they spend. Let’s use 300 trades as an average, which would give a turnover of $7500 per week (or being able to flip over the bankroll 6 times in a month ($30k turnover)). The average flat ROI for soft books is 2.6%. $5000 * 1,026^6 = $5832. Deduct the monthly costs of a TM core subscription of €120 or roughly $130 and you will be left with a profit that month of $702. The next month your starting bankroll will be $5702. Achieving the same numbers for the second month would yield an expected profit of $1521 after subtracting the fees. The total bankroll would now be $6521.
So your expected profits depends on your starting bankroll, your number of trades, your stake sizing, the edge / average ROI and variance. You have full control over your bankroll, the number of trades you make, and your stake sizing. You have some influence over your edge / avg. ROI depending on your presets. Variance is a factor that is largely outside of your control. Some steps you can take to reduce it is to reduce your odds range and stake sizing. You can make some calculations for yourself depending on your starting bankroll, avg. bet size, and number of trades you are able to get in per week and see how the expected results change.
Finally, nothing is certain in life. Nothing is risk free. We do not guarantee that you will make a profit by using our service. As you will experience yourself, the odds offered by the bookmaker will often drop shortly after you placed your trade. This should tell you that we are onto something and that the bookmakers have realized that the odds they offered was to high compared to the actual probability of the outcome.
No, you can not place bets directly through Trademate. Yes, you would need accounts at different bookmakers.
Naturally, more bookmakers means more edges. Therefore, it makes sense to spread your bankroll over as many bookmakers as possible, but with some constraints:
First is the deposit bonus, which you always want to max out. They vary from anywhere between $100-$500, and before depositing at a bookie with a bonus, you should consider waiting until you're able to max it out.
We also like to spread the bankroll disproportionately, i.e. having a larger % at bookies with a larger number of trades and a lower % at bookies with a lower volume of trades. For example, you might place 2/5 of your bankroll on higher volume bookies and ⅕ on lower volume bookies. The last ⅖ is kept in reserve in your bank account or e-wallet until you get a clearer picture of which bookies you get the highest volume of trades at, or as a backup in case you run bad at a bookie and tap out. The goal is to eventually get the entire bankroll in play in order to maximize turnover.
Note that bookmakers often have restrictions on which countries they accept customers from. This is something you'll have to check in each individual case.