To put it simply a value bet, edgebet or trade is the edge that you have versus the bookmaker. Because bookmakers offer different odds, ineffeciencies occur. For instance once the lineups are released and a key player is injured the odds on the other team will drop and some bookmakers lag behind the rest of the market. Trademate is a tool that helps you to identify edges. You can read more about how edges occur are covered in this article.
We consider traditional sports betting or punting to be for entertainment purposes only. Sports trading is when you are serious about making a profit from betting and view it as a form of investment. This also applies to us describing bets as trades inside Trademate. And we why refer to ourselves as sports traders, rather than sports bettors.
A different way of writing probability. There are different odds types, such as decimal odds, American odds and fractional odds. Odds = 1 / Probability.
A customizable filter on edges inside Trademate.
The total amount wagered on all of your trades or for a given time period.
Return On Investment, meaning the % of money you make for every single unit you bet
In probability theory, the expected value of a random variable, intuitively, is the long-run average value of repetitions of the experiment it represents. E.g. the expected value of getting tails in a coin toss is 0.5 or 50% chance of the outcome occurring. With Trademate your EV is equal to your edge % x your stake size on a given game. We also separate between your EV based on your edge placed and your EV based on your closing edge. The latter being the most important. See paragraph on the closing line.
Basically the deviations from the mean / expected value.
Avg. ROI per trade is based on the actual stake sizing you register on each trade you record with Trademate. Flat ROI per trade is what your average ROI per trade would have been if you placed a fixed amount per trade. See flat stake sizing. To wheter we actually have an edge versus the market, flat stake sizing is the best measurement, as it removes the effect stake sizing has on the actual returns. While in practice using a proportional staking strategy is better as it does not make sense to given a 2% edge, bet as much on a 2.0 in odds and 10.0 in odds game.
Betting a fixed amount. E.g. $100 per bet.
In an arbitrage bet or surebet you will bet on all outcomes of the game for a sure win. In a valuebet you only bet on one outcome of the game. Thus the risk is higher, but so is the potential reward. A typical arbitrage bet is typically around 1%. In theory arbitrage bets are great, but in practice there are a couple of elements that makes them less appealing. E.g. the odds changing after you have placed one side of the bet or that the bookmaker voids the bet (palpable error). Both of these would lead to the surewin no longer existing. If you loose that bet, it will take you a lot of arbitrage bets to make up for the losses. Also, the number of arbitrage opportunities are less frequent as the odds needs to be high on all of the game’s outcomes. Because of this it is also a lot easier for bookmakers to identify and limit arbitrage bettors than value bettors.
Value bets are typically between 1-5%. However, the largest value bet recorded with Trademate was 182%! Valuebets occur far more frequently than arbitrage bets, because there only has to be deviations in odds on one outcome of the game. This means that you can get in several hunded bets/trades per week. Which again implies that you can get in a higher overall turnover and a higher compounded growth. The downside is that there is more variance, so the ups and downswings are larger. This is best mitigated by reducing the odds range and stake size.
For example Unibet, William Hill etc. Caters to punters. They are position takers, so you are be#ng against the house. The majority of so% bookmakers are European. The difference between European and Asian bookmakers and how they make money are explained in this video:
For example Pinnacle, SBO, and Dafabet/IBC. Caters to sharp bettors and traders. They are book balancers, so you are betting against other players. The Asian bookmakers are sharp, but they are not the only sharp bookmakers. The difference between European and Asian bookmakers and how they make money are explained in this video:
For example Betfair and Matchbook. Enables players to give and take bets from each other.
For example Sportsmarket, VIP Sportsbook and Asian Connect. Enables sharp bettors and traders to place bets on exchanges and sharp bookmakers with only 1 account.